Tweaking the Tom Carter Scale of Averageness - Introducing Overrated vs Underrated

The Tom Carter Scale of Averageness has had only mixed results so far, failing to predict the Waratahs' losses to the Force and the Reds, though at least getting the thrashing of the Rebels correct. Clearly the system needs some tweaking. So given that Tom Carter is, at least until very recently, very underrated as a player and a bloke, while other supposed party boys and pretty boys are clearly overrated, The Rolling Maul has developed the Overrated - Underrated system for determining match winners.


Quite simply, overrated rated players score -1, underrated players score +2, and rated players score +1. Replacements have their scores halved given they tend to play less than half a match. The team with the most points will win, the philosophy being that an underrated team will always out perform and out enthuse an overrated team. Just look at the Blues if you need proof. 

So here goes for this weeks Waratahs vs Force game...

WARATAHS

Backs
Bernard Foley  - underrated
Tom Kingston  - underrated
Rob Horne  - rated
Tom Carter  - underrated
Adam Ashley-Cooper  - rated
Berrick Barnes  - overrated
Brendan McKibbin  - underrated
Sub-total  9

Forwards
Wycliff Palu  - rated
Chris Alcock  - underrated
Dave Dennis  - overrated
Kane Douglas  - rated
Dean Mumm  - rated
Sekope Kepu  - overrated
Tatafu Polota-Nau  - rated
Benn Robinson - rated
Sub-total  5

Replacements
John Ulugia  - overrated
Paddy Ryan  - underrated
Sitaleki Timani  - rated
Lopeti Timani  - overrated
Jono Jenkins  - overrated
Sarel Pretorius  - rated
Daniel Halangahu  - overrated
Sub-total  0

TOTAL 14

FORCE
Backs
Brett Sheehan  - overrated
Ben Seymour  - overrated
Alfie Mafi  - rated
Winston Stanley  - rated
Nick Cummins  - underrated
Rory Sidey  - underrated
David Harvey  - overrated
Sub-total  3

Forwards
Pek Cowan  - overrated

Nathan Charles  - rated
Salesi Ma’afu  - rated
Toby Lynn  - rated
Nathan Sharpe  - underrated
Richard Brown  - rated
David Pocock  - rated
Matt Hodgson  - overrated
Sub-total  5

Replacements
Elvis Taione  - rated
Kieran Longbottom  - overrated
Phoenix Battye  - rated
Ben McCalman  - underrated
Josh Holmes  - overrated
Cameron Shepherd  - overrated
Patrick Dellit  - underrated
Sub-total  1.5

TOTAL  9.5

CONCLUSIONS 
The only advantage of the Waratahs suffering some early season injury shockers to their star wingers was the unearthing of some new talent out wide. The unheralded and largely underrated backline has been taking up the slack in recent matches where their traditionally more overrrated forward back has let things slip. Nonetheless, while the Waratah forward pack have a number of underperfomers, some of them are better known and rate appropriately.

The Force though struggle with a team that is talked up because, well, that's all they've got. A handful of players would perform well in better qualified company but for the large part there are too many Force players overrated simply because of the lack of talent out West that pretty much guarantees them a starting spot irrespective of their on-field performance.

Too much underutlised talent out wide for the Tahs should see them play a wide game if they can while the Force will try to keep it tight. They have no other options. The Waratahs rate 5.5 points higher than the Force. That should translate to a win, but expect some uncomfortable moments getting there.

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