Brumby Backline More Likely To Bang Than Burst

Only The Rolling Maul's Overrated vs Underrated system of measuring likely match results predicted the closeness of the Waratahs match vs the Rebels. At three tries a piece it was pretty spot on even if the actual scoreboard indicated a Tahs win that should have been much more comfortable than it was.

This week it's the Brumbies under the Maul's microscope as they're next in line for a Waratahs whooping. Or are they?

A reminder, each player is rated 2 points if they're generally considered underrated by The Rolling Maul, 1 point if they're rated fairly, and -1 point if they're considered overrated. Reserves score half points.

Read more about this scoring system here.

WARATAHS

Backs
Adam Ashley-Cooper  - Rated
Atieli Pakalani  - Overrated
Tom Kingston  - Rated
Tom Carter   - Underrated
Peter Betham  - Overrated
Berrick Barnes  - Overrated
Brendan McKibbin  - Rated
Sub-total  2

Forwards
Wycliff Palu  - Rated
Jono Jenkins  - Overrated
Dave Dennis  - Rated
Kane Douglas  - Rated
Sitaleki Timani  - Underrated
Sekope Kepu  - Rated
Tatafu Polota-Nau  - Rated
Benn Robinson  - Rated

Sub-total  7

Reserves
John Ulugia  - Rated
Jeremy Tilse  - Overrated
Dean Mumm  - Rated
Lopeti Timani  - Underrated
Rocky Elsom  - Overrated
Sarel Pretorius  - Underrated
Daniel Halangahu  - Overrated
Sub-total  1.5

TOTAL  10.5

BRUMBIES

Backs
Jesse Mogg  - Rated
Henry Speight  - Rated
Andrew Smith  - Rated
Pat McCabe  - Rated
Joe Tomane  - Rated
Christian Lealiifano  - Overrated
Nic White  - Rated
Sub-total  5

Forwards
Fotu Auelua  - Rated
Michael Hooper  - Underrated
Ben Mowen   - Rated
Sam Carter  - Overrated
Scott Fardy  - Rated
Dan Palmer  - Rated
Stephen Moore  - Rated
Ben Alexander  - Rated
Sub-total  7

Reserves
Anthony Hegarty  - Rated
Ruaidhri Murphy  - Rated
Peter Kimlin  - Overrated
Ita Vaea  - Rated
Ian Prior  - Rated
Robbie Coleman  - Rated
Tevita Kuridrani  - Overrated

Sub-total  1.5

TOTAL  -  13.5

CONCLUSION
The Brumbies aren't nearly the surprise packets they were just a few weeks ago and it shows in how many of their players are considered to be rated fairly. Underrated no more, indeed the Overrated vs Underrated scoring system may have been about the only method that could have predicted their upset results earlier in the season.

Nonetheless, the Waratahs backline is still comfortably outrated by their Brumbies counterparts and it's obvious why. With injuries and underperformance, a once positively talked-about backline has been spluttering for some time. The potential is there but they don't deliver often enough, hence the poor rating.
It's a slightly different story in the forwards. The Waratahs forwards have been gradually improving as the season has progressed, so have the Brumbies for the matter, so it's no surprise their ratings are the same. Both team's reserves are a mixed bag and this probably reflects the lack of depth in Australian Rugby generally.
 
Overall, the Brumbies will target the Waratahs poor defence in the backline as exposed by the Crusaders, the Waratahs will try to keep it tight to create space for their backline to hopefully exploit. It won't work though. Brumbies to kick clear after a tight struggle for much of the match.

Comments

Phil Bailey said…
How does Robbie Frueans's performance against Tom Carter last week affect your scale of averageness?

Maybe Carter should be considered less than average?
Given Fruen's form I think any centre on the planet would have looked ordinary. Tom Carter is underrated by definition, and in terms of the scale of averageness by definition he'll always be worth one Tom Carter!
Phil Bailey said…
Hard to argue with that logic!

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