Waratah Reality - Rebels Nearly as Overrated As They Are

The newly minted Overrated vs Underrated system for determining the winners of Rugby games came up trumps in its first outing last week, successfully predicting the Tahs to get up over the Force. But now it gets tricky, and the rating may have a surprise in store for the Waratahs this week for their clash with the Rebels.


Just as a reminder, the philosophy of this system is that a team of underrated overperformers will always defeat a team of showboating overrated underperformers for the simple reason that they are likely to be underestimated. Points are allocated based on:

Underrated = 2 points
Rated = 1 point
Overrated = Minus 1 point

So for this week...

WARATAHS

Backs
Bernard Foley  - Underrated
Tom Kingston  - Underrated
Rob Horne  - Overrated
Tom Carter  - Underated
Adam Ashley-Cooper  - Rated
Berrick Barnes  - Overrated
Brendan McKibbin  - Overrated
Sub-total  4

Forwards
Wycliff Palu  - Overrated
Chris Alcock  - Underrated
Dave Dennis  - Rated
Kane Douglas  - Rated
Dean Mumm  - Overrated
Sekope Kepu  - Overrated
Tatafu Polota-Nau  - Rated
Benn Robinson (capt)  - Underrated
Sub-total   4

Reserves
Rocky Elsom  - Overrated
Daniel Halangahu  - Overrated
Sarel Pretorius  - Underrated
Paddy Ryan  - Rated
Lopeti Timani  - Rated
Sitaleki Timani  - Rated
John Ulugia  - Overrated
Sub-total  1

TOTAL  9

REBELS

Backs
Kurtley Beale  - Rated
Lachlan Mitchell  - Rated
Mark Gerrard  - Rated
Lloyd Johansson  - Overrated
James O'Connor  - Rated
Danny Cipriani  - Rated
Nick Phipps  - Overrated
Sub-total  3

ForwardsMichael Lipman  - Rated
Jarrod Saffy  - Rated
Hugh Pyle  - Underrated
Luke Jones  - Underrated
Rodney Blake  - Overrated
Ged Robinson  - Overrated
Nic Henderson  - Rated
Sub-total  5

Reserves
Luke Holmes  - Rated
Owen  - Rated
Alister Campbell  - Rated
Tim Davidson  - Overrated
Richard Kingi  - Overrated
Julian Huxley  - Rated
Cooper Vuna  - Rated
Sub-total  1.5

TOTAL  9.5

CONCLUSION
A shock result is in the offing here with the Overrated vs Underrated system predicting an upset, but only by the smallest of margins. It is apparent that the Waratahs inconsistent season is now starting to bite and their reputations are suffering accordingly. That's especially so in the forwards, where the unheralded Rebels pack slightly outrates the better credentialled but underperforming Waratahs pack.

Out wide it's a different matter, but still not by a lot. Here the Waratahs have youthful exuberance (ie inexperience) on their side as opposed to the experienced but disappointing Rebels backline yet to show their worth.

All in all it makes for a fascinating match up.

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